Benzene and hydrogenated benzene held firm in the week to 19 October. Off-exchange crude quotes jumped over the weekend as geopolitical tension intensified, halting the slide in spot benzene. Shandong refinery benzene settled at CNY 10,300/t. Weekly hydrogenated benzene orders were fully concluded, and producers are now working through the contracted backlog.
Buyers with firm requirements struggled to secure competitively priced cargoes. Acceptable purchase levels moved up by CNY 100–150/t to CNY 10,350–10,400/t.
Product note: crude benzene is a coke-oven by-product; hydrogenated benzene is crude benzene that has been hydrotreated to remove sulphur and other impurities, making it a partial substitute for petrochemical benzene in several downstream units. All prices in this report are Chinese domestic ex-works levels in CNY per tonne. They indicate market direction — not an export quotation.
Fresh geopolitical developments pushed off-exchange crude quotes sharply higher:
The oil rally through early and mid-October has been driven mainly by expectations of tighter supply. At present there is no clear sign of de-escalation between the US and Iran, vessel throughput through the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable, and attacks on Saudi energy facilities continue. Supply-tight expectations are therefore likely to persist.
Our view for October: international crude should hold broadly high levels with limited downside. High feedstock cost provides a floor under benzene prices.
Some refineries cut operating rates as a defensive measure against possible feedstock shortfalls. Tight benzene supply is still the single most important factor underpinning prices. In addition, part of the short positions scheduled for September rolled into October. With East China port stocks already low and October arrivals limited, benzene inventory at East China ports is forecast to fall to about 38,000 tonnes next week.
Crude benzene supply is ample in some regions. At the same time, unit shutdowns reduced the volumes traders could take in, dampening activity and capping upside in crude benzene. The spread between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene widened, leaving producers with healthy margins — CNY 410/t in Shandong on 15 October.
Those margins encouraged previously idled capacity back on stream: one producer in Hebei, one line at a Henan producer and phase II of another Henan producer have restarted. The average operating rate of hydrogenated benzene producers rose to 59.84% on 15 October.
Further gains look limited, however. Several hydrogenated benzene plants have maintenance scheduled as winter approaches, so the run rate may plateau and then decline.
| Product | 15 Oct | 8 Oct | Change | Change rate | Next-period forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Styrene | -431 | -1,243 | +812 | 65.33% | -450 |
| Phenol | -1,441 | -1,213 | -228 | -18.80% | -1,400 |
| Caprolactam | -212 | -621 | +409 | 65.86% | -40 |
| Aniline | 3,965 | 3,137 | +828 | 26.39% | 4,100 |
| Adipic acid | -2,521 | -2,375 | -146 | -6.15% | -2,300 |
Unit: CNY per tonne. Theoretical margins are model-based processing spreads along the benzene chain, not company-level profit.
Capacity utilisation across the main downstream sectors fell to varying degrees, while margins improved for some products:
Ongoing Middle East tension and high tanker freight costs are likely to keep international crude elevated. On fundamentals, benzene also has solid support and limited downside: the tight supply pattern is unchanged, East China port stocks sit at multi-year lows, weekly benzene output has fallen, and growth in hydrogenated benzene output is constrained. No sudden negative supply-side news is in sight.
The counterweight is demand. Major downstream plants have cut run rates and are buying only for rigid requirements, so market absorption is weak. Without a sharp rise in crude, upside for both benzene and hydrogenated benzene is capped. Expect high-level consolidation rather than a breakout.
This report reflects market conditions at the time of publication and is provided for reference only. Prices change frequently — please contact us for a current quotation against your specification, volume and delivery point.
